The college admissions calculator that uses real data, not guesses.
Most chances calculators tell everyone they have a 25-30% shot at every T20. Stanford accepts 3.6%. The math doesn't work. Candor uses verified Common Data Set figures from 219+ schools and odds calibrated to be honest, not optimistic.
What's different
No vibes-based admissions math. Every number has a source.
CDS-verified figures
219+ schools have stats hand-pulled from their official Common Data Set. The rest use federal data with a clear "verified vs federal" badge so you know what's checked.
Calibrated, not optimistic
Elite schools cap at sub-15% even for top applicants — because that's reality. Truly exceptional applicants (USAMO golds, recruited athletes) get a separate flag that lifts the cap honestly.
Per-school weighting
Legacy at Harvard ≠ legacy at Duke. The model factors legacy at the specific school, athlete status, first-gen, and demonstrated interest at schools that actually track it.
Targets, not lotteries
Schools sorted by how well they actually match your stats and preferences (size, vibe, weather, prestige weighting). Pushes you toward real targets, not just lottery reaches.
Real outcomes from real applicants
Pulled from r/collegeresults and similar — actual admit/reject/waitlist outcomes with stats and what stood out, so you can calibrate against people who actually got in.
AI grounded in hand-checked facts
Every school has hand-checked program facts the AI can't override (USC Roski requires portfolios for ALL majors, etc.). No more hallucinated advice.
I'm a high school junior. Last semester I spent hours on every chances calculator on the internet trying to figure out where I actually stood for college, and the numbers were all over the place — one said 30% at Vanderbilt, another said 8%, another said 22%.
I started digging into why, and turns out most of them either use federal data that lags 1-2 years, have AI just make up stats, or use a fit model so generic it's basically useless. So I spent a few weeks pulling the actual Common Data Set PDFs from each school's website and built my own.
The goal is calibration, not telling you what you want to hear. If your odds at Stanford are 4%, you should know that — so you can spend your ED slot somewhere it'll actually matter.
— Jasper, Candor's founder
A chances number alone won't get you in.
Premium is the layer that turns "6% at Stanford" into a plan. Built into every school page and your full college list. Pay once, use it through your whole application cycle.
Personalized AI strategy
Per-school strategy calibrated to your stats, ECs, and what that school actually weights. Not generic advice — yours.
List grader + simulator
Score your full college list 1–10. Simulate where you'd ED, EA, RD — and your probability of getting into at least one reach.
Score push impact
See exactly how a +60 SAT or +2 ACT moves your odds at each school. Decide if a retake is actually worth the time.
Saved schools dashboard
Every school you've chanced or saved, grouped by application round (ED1, ED2, EA, REA, RD). One view of your whole list.
Free stays free
The chances calculator stays free for everyone. Premium is the strategic layer on top — no paywall on the basics.
Get your real chances.
Free chances in 30 seconds. Upgrade only if you want the strategy on top.
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